Tonight answers whether Will Hardy can keep Keyonte George, Ace Bailey or Darryn Peterson on the floor for every minute of the game. With Jaren Jackson Jr. out and Lauri Markkanen questionable, those three are the offense, and the Spurs' five starters were all plus-12 or better in both of their wins, Saturday at Dallas and Tuesday against Sacramento.
Our Monday recap found where the Memphis game went. By our count of the play-by-play, Hardy played 8:08 with none of the three on the floor, and we lost those minutes 25-14. We lost the game 110-105. Our pick that night, Jazz 117, Grizzlies 112, got a D: right margin, wrong team.
It matters more now. The Jazz said Tuesday afternoon that Jackson tore the MCL in his right knee and will be re-evaluated in six weeks. Shams Charania and Tim MacMahon of ESPN reported he's expected to miss about six to eight weeks and won't need surgery (via Hoops Rumors). Markkanen has a sprained right wrist and is day-to-day, per the team. We wish them both a quick recovery and will leave it there.
Three players, 93 minutes
George played 32:53 on Monday, Bailey 34:08 and Peterson 25:58. That's 92:59 between them in a 48-minute game. Stagger their rest and one of them is always out there, with nobody playing a minute more.
"(Lauri and Jaren) set the standard for us, but it was about the next man up," George said after the game, per Jazz.com. We like the next man up. We just want him next to one of those three. The bench couldn't buy a basket Monday: Josh Okogie went 0-of-4, Svi Mykhailiuk 0-of-4 and Kyle Filipowski 0-of-3. Josh Green still finished plus-14, and Brice Sensabaugh made 3-of-4 from deep. Put guys like that beside George or Bailey and they look like a rotation. Leave them out there alone and you get the 8:08.
The Spurs' starters barely sit
Spurs coach Mitch Johnson starts three guards, De'Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper and Stephon Castle, next to Devin Vassell and Victor Wembanyama, as Jazz.com's preview laid out. The box scores show how hard he leans on them: in four games, none of the five has played fewer than 24 minutes. Tuesday's 27-point blowout of the Kings was as light as it gets, and Vassell still got his 24.
That group is good. Wembanyama was plus-32 in 28:55 in that 122-106 win at Dallas. San Antonio's soft spots have come when the starters rest. Luke Kornet was minus-18 in 14 minutes that night, and Julian Champagnie was minus-24 in the 116-104 home loss to Oklahoma City. Those are the minutes we can steal, and a Jazz lineup with nobody who can make his own shot won't steal them.
Before Monday's game, Jazz.com reported, Hardy said our perimeter defenders have to stay connected to the ball and get more physical with opposing guards so they don't get screened out of plays. Three Spurs guards who all attack off the dribble will test that for 48 minutes, including every minute Isaiah Collier and Okogie spend guarding them.
Mo Bamba gets Wembanyama
Mo Bamba hadn't played a minute this season before Monday. Then he went 7-of-8 for 14 points with 7 rebounds and 4 blocks in 28:34. With Jackson out, Jusuf Nurkić still out and Jaxson Hayes questionable, we expect Bamba to be the center tonight, with Tony Bradley and Filipowski behind him.
Wembanyama is a different job from Zach Edey. He's averaging 22.3 points and 10.8 rebounds and has 17 blocks in four games, five of them Tuesday in a 29-point, 10-rebound night against the Kings. Oklahoma City held him to 1-of-13 shooting, and he still blocked 6 shots. Houston gave up 25 and 13. Bamba's job is to stay out of foul trouble and keep Wembanyama off the glass while George and Bailey go at the guards.
And throw out the preseason. We beat the Spurs 119-109 on Oct. 12, and none of Fox, Harper, Castle, Vassell or Wembanyama played.
Spurs on the second night
Tip is 7 p.m. MT at the Delta Center, on KJZZ and KSL 97.5 FM (schedule). It's the first of three meetings this season. San Antonio won two of three last season. The Spurs beat Sacramento 130-103 at home on Tuesday night and fly in for the second night of a back-to-back, their second road game of the season. The blowout kept every one of their starters at 30 minutes or less, so don't expect tired legs. We had Tuesday off. We'd like to think that shows up late in the game. We're not counting on it.
We're 1-3. The Spurs are 2-2 and have won two straight since home losses to Oklahoma City and Houston (114-110). Jazz.com points out they're coming off a trip to the NBA Finals. ESPN's line has San Antonio by 13.5, up from 12.5 when it opened.
The NBA's official injury report of 8 p.m. ET Tuesday and ESPN's injury list on Wednesday afternoon have Markkanen (right wrist sprain) and Hayes (right shoulder soreness) questionable for us, and ESPN calls both game-time decisions. Jackson (torn right MCL) and Nurkić (right foot) are out. Trey Alexander, Kobe Bufkin and Harrison Ingram are also out. For San Antonio, Tobias Harris (calf) and Jayden Quaintance are out.
Our pick
Spurs 115, Jazz 109. That's a loss, and a closer one than the line says. If Markkanen plays, we'd move toward a coin flip. Without him, George, Bailey and Peterson carry the shot-making against the best starting five we've seen so far, and we think they keep it close if Hardy spreads them across all 48 minutes.
The number we'll check in the recap is the time with none of George, Bailey or Peterson on the floor. Monday it was 8:08 by our count. We want zero tonight, and anything under two minutes is a win for Hardy.
What would make us wrong: the Spurs' starters beating ours by double digits, the way they beat Dallas, in which case the bench minutes won't matter. Or Wembanyama getting Bamba into early foul trouble and leaving us with Bradley and Filipowski against him.
Take note.
Sources: NBA.com box scores for Grizzlies-Jazz, Thunder-Spurs, Rockets-Spurs, Spurs-Mavericks and the preseason Spurs-Jazz for scores, minutes, shooting, rebounds, blocks and plus-minus; ESPN's box score for Kings-Spurs and Wembanyama's game log for Tuesday's game and his season numbers; our Oct. 27 recap for the 8:08 count from the NBA.com play-by-play; Jazz.com's medical update, Spurs preview and Grizzlies takeaways (George's quote); Shams Charania and Tim MacMahon of ESPN via Hoops Rumors; the official NBA injury report of 8 p.m. ET Tuesday and ESPN injuries, read at 4:45 p.m. MDT Wednesday; ESPN's game page for the line (DraftKings) and the three-game season series; NBA.com for last season's meetings and the schedule, with tip time and broadcasts.