Monday answers whether Wednesday was real. We took the Spurs to overtime at the Delta Center and lost 117-111 (our recap), and it felt like something to build on. Five days later we see them again in San Antonio. They've won four straight and they're 4-2. We're 1-5, we've lost four in a row, and the last one was a 22-point loss to Portland (our recap). Our take: most of what kept Wednesday close stays in Salt Lake. The one piece that can make the trip is the rim, and that's on Jaxson Hayes and Mo Bamba.
The parts that stay home
San Antonio beat Sacramento 130-103 at home on Tuesday night and played us the next night. All five Spurs starters logged at least 36:55. They shot 44-of-101, went 12-of-38 from three, and Dylan Harper was 4-of-17. We went 15-of-39 from deep and 18-of-19 at the line. Our season mark from three is 32.7 percent, 23rd in the league per ESPN, so that night was us shooting above our heads against a team on its second night in a row. We still lost. And if the Spurs were tired, they hid it in overtime, which they won 12-6.
Monday, nobody's on a back-to-back. Both teams last played Saturday, when the Spurs beat Minnesota 121-111 at home. If you want something to hold onto, both of San Antonio's losses came in that building, per ESPN's splits.
The NBA's official injury report as of 7:45 p.m. ET Sunday has Jaren Jackson Jr. (right MCL tear) and Jusuf Nurkić (right second plantar plate tear) out, along with two-way players Trey Alexander, Kobe Bufkin and Harrison Ingram, listed as G League. Lauri Markkanen isn't on it, and neither is Hayes. Markkanen missed Wednesday's game and went 3-of-14 Saturday in his first game back from the sprained right wrist. For San Antonio, Tobias Harris (left calf strain) and Jayden Quaintance (right knee surgery) are out.
Tip is 6:30 p.m. MST at Frost Bank Center, on KJZZ and KSL 97.5 FM (schedule), the first game of a four-game road trip. The Spurs are sixth in the West; we're 14th. We won in San Antonio last December, 127-114, for what that's worth. ESPN's Matchup Predictor gives us a 14 percent chance, and the line has the Spurs by 15.5.
Seven of eight at the rim
The Spurs won the paint 54-34 on Wednesday, and Victor Wembanyama had 36 points and 14 rebounds on 14-of-25. Sort his shots by distance in NBA.com's play-by-play and the jumpers weren't what beat us. Beyond five feet he went 7-of-17, 4-of-10 from three. Within five feet he went 7-of-8, and four of those were alley-oop dunks, three thrown by Stephon Castle. That's 14 points on eight shots at the rim and 18 on 17 everywhere else. We can live with the jumpers; the eight shots at the rim are what we have to take away. That's how this team scores, too. Eric Spyropoulos's preview on Jazz.com has the Spurs second in the league in the share of their points that come in the paint, 47.4 percent.
The matchup looked deliberate. By our count of the play-by-play, Hayes never played a second without Wembanyama on the floor. Four times Mitch Johnson sat Wembanyama, and four times Will Hardy sent Bamba in for Hayes at the same stoppage. Three of the four times Wembanyama came back, Hayes came back with him. So Bamba saw Wembanyama for 1:24 all night, and 33 of the 36 points, including all seven makes at the rim, came with Hayes out there.
Hayes finished with 2 points, 11 rebounds and 4 assists in 37:24, and he was minus-11. Bamba went 4-of-6 for 8 points in 15:36 and was plus-5, all but those 1:24 against Luke Kornet. Maybe Bamba does no better against Wembanyama. We'd still try him there for a real stretch Monday, because the Hayes version of this matchup already lost. Whoever's out there has one job: no lobs. Wembanyama can have the 26-footers.
The first lob started with a turnover
The opening alley-oop came nine seconds after Castle stole an Ace Bailey pass. Harper missed the layup, Castle got the rebound and threw it up. San Antonio had 14 steals to our 3 on Wednesday and 14 fast-break points to our 7, and it doesn't hand the ball back: 13.2 turnovers a game, second-fewest in the league per ESPN. We're at 17.3, 25th. Hardy said it after Portland, in Spyropoulos's takeaways: "You've got to play in straight lines and you can't dance with the ball." He added, "And when we have the advantage, we can't give it back."
Our pick
Spurs 118, Jazz 106. Rested and at home, the Spurs get their legs back, and our threes come back to 32 percent. The lobs decide whether it's 12 or 20.
What would make us wrong: Wembanyama held to four or fewer makes at the rim with no more than one lob, fewer than 15 turnovers from us, and Markkanen playing and making shots. Get two of those three and we'll be back in a close one in the fourth.
The recap grades the bigs first: Wembanyama's makes within five feet and his alley-oops, against seven and four on Wednesday. Four or fewer makes and one lob at most is a win for Hayes and Bamba. Then, if it's within five with five minutes left, we'll check where Darryn Peterson is. He played 2:54 of the last 10 minutes on Wednesday, regulation and overtime together. Saturday was 88-64 after three quarters, so the question never came up.
Take note.
Sources: NBA.com box score for the Oct. 28 game (Wembanyama's line, paint points, minutes, plus-minus, steals, fast-break points, both teams' shooting and the overtime score); NBA.com play-by-play for Wembanyama's shots by distance, the alley-oops and who threw them, the Hayes and Bamba substitutions, the 1:24, his points with Hayes on the floor, the first-quarter steal and Peterson's minutes in the finish (our count); NBA.com's Spurs team page for their Oct. 27 and Oct. 31 games; the NBA.com box score of the Blazers game for Markkanen's shooting and the score after three; ESPN's team stats, standings and game page for the ranks, splits, records, Matchup Predictor and line, read at 6:10 p.m. MST Sunday; Eric Spyropoulos on Jazz.com for the Spurs preview (paint share, road trip) and the Blazers takeaways (Hardy's quotes); the official NBA injury report of 7:45 p.m. ET Sunday, read at 6:07 p.m. MST; NBA.com for the schedule, tip time and broadcasts; our 2025-26 season archive for last December's win in San Antonio.