Jazz.com's first key for tonight is keeping Zion Williamson and the Pelicans from living at the rim. Ours is at the other end of the floor. New Orleans leads the league in steals, Williamson has 19 of their 90, and tonight answers whether Darryn Peterson should be the one holding the ball when they come for it. We say yes, from the opening tip.
Our Spurs recap left two things to watch here: who brings the ball up in the first six minutes, and how many twos from beyond five feet we take. Peterson got "additional minutes as the team's primary ball-handler," Eric Spyropoulos wrote on Jazz.com, and finished with a career-high six assists and one turnover. We turned it over 11 times, our fewest this season, and still lost by 22 because we missed 62 shots. Keep the 11 anyway. Wednesday is a worse night to lose the ball.
Ninety steals in seven games
The Pelicans average 12.9 steals a game, first in the NBA per ESPN. Their opponents have committed 119 player turnovers in seven games, and 90 of them were Pelicans steals, by our count of ESPN's box scores. Williamson's 19 came three, three, two, three, five, three, and then none in Monday's overtime win in Memphis. Jazz.com's preview ranks New Orleans 12th at forcing turnovers, which is good, and the steals put them first. Most of what they get is ripped out of somebody's hands.
Keyonte George has played 215 minutes this season and Peterson 212, per the NBA.com box scores. George has 38 assists and 27 turnovers. Peterson has 23 assists and 8 turnovers. George makes more plays and gives away more of them, and twice he's had 10 assists and six turnovers in the same game. The first time was against these Pelicans.
What Oct. 23 told us
We beat New Orleans 120-119 at the Delta Center, still our only win (recap). George ran that game with 19 points and 10 assists, and Jazz.com had the starting five at a plus-28.6 net rating in the first half. He also had six of our 18 turnovers. Peterson had none. The Pelicans got 15 steals, three apiece from Williamson, Dejounte Murray and Jordan Poole.
New Orleans scored 14 points off those 18 turnovers, and we scored 27 off their 15, per NBA.com. We won by one. We got away with it, and we're not counting on the Pelicans wasting 15 steals twice.
We beat them at the arc, 13-of-35 to their 8-of-26, and out-assisted them 31 to 18. They won the paint 64-54, and Jazz.com has them at 62.6 paint points a game, so plan on that again. Jaren Jackson Jr., who had 24 and 10, is out with a right MCL tear. Jaxson Hayes went 7-of-8 off our bench and started Monday.
So who gets it?
One r/UtahJazz commenter in Monday's postgame thread wasn't sold on either one: "Key is good but I think he's best at the 2 and same with DP." Fair, and tonight doesn't have to settle it. Will Hardy only has to decide who holds the ball against a team that lives on steals, and the turnover numbers make that call for him.
George still gets his. He leads us at 19.6 points a game, per ESPN. Let him get them off Peterson's passes, catching and shooting instead of dribbling into Williamson's reach. "Our decision-making needs to improve," Hardy said Monday, per Jazz.com. Fewer decisions for the guard with 27 turnovers is one way to get there.
Tip is 6 p.m. MT at the Smoothie King Center, on KJZZ and KSL 97.5 FM (schedule). We're 1-6, 15th in the West, losers of five straight, on game two of a four-game road trip. The Pelicans are 3-4 and 11th after three straight wins, the last one 135-134 in overtime in Memphis on Monday, per the Associated Press. DraftKings has New Orleans by 5.5.
The NBA's official injury report at 8 p.m. ET Tuesday (6 p.m. MT) has Jackson Jr. and Jusuf Nurkić out and Mo Bamba questionable with a right ankle sprain. For New Orleans, Yves Missi is out and Trey Murphy III and Poole are probable. Murray has missed three games for personal reasons, per the AP. He isn't on the report, and we haven't seen whether he plays.
No starters are announced yet. Projected, going off Monday's NBA.com box score: Ace Bailey, Lauri Markkanen, Hayes, Peterson and George for us. Pelicans.com has Murphy, Williamson, Karlo Matković, Herbert Jones and Jeremiah Fears from their last game.
Our pick
Pelicans 117, Jazz 111. New Orleans scores 121.9 a game, third in the league, and we've been held under 100 two games running. Jackson's 24 from the first meeting are out with him, and Bamba might be too. We beat the Pelicans once, though, and scored 120 doing it. Their defense gives up 120.1 a game, 25th in the league, so there should be shots for us whenever the steal doesn't come.
The number we'll check in the recap is Pelicans steals. Ten or fewer, with Peterson bringing it up from the start, and we think we leave New Orleans with our second win. We're wrong if they get 15-plus steals again and we score like we did the last two nights.
Take note.
Sources: NBA.com box scores for every Jazz game this season, including the Oct. 23 Pelicans game (player and team lines, steals, points off turnovers, paint points, assists) and the Nov. 2 Spurs game (our starters), with George's and Peterson's minutes, assists and turnovers totaled by us; ESPN box scores for the Pelicans' seven games (their steals, Williamson's steals and their opponents' player turnovers, our count); ESPN team stats and standings for the per-game averages and ranks; NBA.com standings for both records and conference places; Eric Spyropoulos on Jazz.com (Spurs takeaways for Hardy's quote and Peterson's role; Pelicans preview for the keys, paint points and opponent turnover percentage; Oct. 23 takeaways for the lineup's net rating); the NBA official injury report, 8 p.m. ET Nov. 3; Pelicans.com for their previous-game lineup; the Associated Press, in a WVUE (Fox 8) story on WDAM.com, for the Memphis game and Murray's absence; r/UtahJazz postgame thread; the line from DraftKings via ESPN.