Ace Bailey took a third fewer shots a game this preseason than he did as a rookie, and half as many threes. The fantasy market has him cheap: ESPN ranks him 124th, RotoWire 139th, and drafters are taking him around pick 130. RotoWire says his role is unclear, and most projections have him coming off the bench, so that's what those prices buy you: a bench wing after a quiet October. We think October was the Jazz's plan working, and we're betting on the scorer he was in March with this month's steals on top. We'd take him around pick 110.
Ace Bailey's preseason stats, game by game
All four games, from the NBA.com box scores. He came off the bench three times. The one start came in the Denver rematch, when Lauri Markkanen sat with neck soreness.
| Date | Game | Role | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | FG | 3P | FT | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct. 4 | at Denver, W 109-97 | Bench | 20:11 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5-10 | 0-2 | 0-0 | +11 |
| Oct. 6 | vs. Denver, L 106-117 | Started | 27:01 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4-12 | 2-6 | 0-0 | -5 |
| Oct. 12 | vs. San Antonio, W 119-109 | Bench | 23:35 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3-8 | 0-2 | 0-0 | +14 |
| Oct. 16 | at Phoenix, W 119-116 | Bench | 21:04 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3-3 | 1-1 | 5-6 | +7 |
| Per game | 23.0 | 9.5 | 5.25 | 1.5 | 1.75 | 0.5 | 3.75-8.25 | 0.75-2.75 | 1.25-1.5 | +6.75 |
That's 45.5% from the field, 27.3% from three (3-of-11) and 5-of-6 at the line. Box scores: Oct. 4, Oct. 6, Oct. 12, Oct. 16.
Here's the same line next to his rookie season:
| 2025-26 regular season | 2026 preseason | |
|---|---|---|
| Games (starts) | 72 (61) | 4 (1) |
| Minutes | 27.6 | 23.0 |
| Points | 13.8 | 9.5 |
| Field goal attempts | 12.4 | 8.25 |
| Three-point attempts | 5.5 | 2.75 |
| Three-point % | 34.4% | 27.3% |
| Rebounds | 4.2 | 5.25 |
| Steals | 0.8 | 1.75 |
| Blocks | 0.7 | 0.5 |
The shots went down on purpose
His minutes dropped by about a sixth, but his shots dropped by a third and his three-point attempts got cut in half. A kid who scored 20.0 a game over his last 13 as a rookie (per Basketball-Reference) didn't forget how to get a shot off over the summer. He spent October doing the job he was given, and that job was guarding people.
The steals more than doubled: seven in four games, three of them against the Spurs and two more in Phoenix. The rebounds went up too. Will Hardy noticed. After the Spurs game he told the Deseret News that Bailey's conditioning has him "at a way different level than he was last year," and then got specific:
"He's keeping his feet moving and keeping his defensive posture while sticking his arm out. He's not lunging for the ball."
Bailey, same story: "Offense is going to come. I'm not worried about the offensive end."
Four exhibition games won't settle anything. The Spurs rested nine players the night he had three steals, and five of his 38 preseason points came at the line in one game. But a 20-year-old taking fewer shots and guarding the ball is exactly what Hardy asked of him a year ago, when his first request, per the Salt Lake Tribune, was that Bailey "use his length defensively to be disruptive." That's how a young wing stays on the floor in April.
What position does Ace Bailey play?
NBA.com lists him as a forward, 6-9 and 200 pounds. In ESPN fantasy leagues he's eligible at small forward and power forward; Andre Snellings' rankings list him at both. We haven't checked Yahoo or CBS, so look at your own league's player card.
On the floor he's a wing who guards the ball. Hardy, in the same Deseret News piece: "He's closing distances on closeouts right now really well, containing the ball at the point of attack." He has also played in the small group with Jaren Jackson Jr. at center; Jazz radio voice David Locke pointed out that lineup on the Locked On Jazz postcast after the Spurs game. Before camp, Ryan McDonald of the Deseret News floated a shooting guard battle between Bailey and Darryn Peterson. Peterson started all four preseason games, so that one's decided for now. For fantasy, slot him at SF and enjoy the PF flexibility.
Starter or sixth man? Nobody official has said
Hardy hasn't named a starting five for Wednesday in Memphis. In the last two preseason games the Jazz started Lauri Markkanen, Jackson, Jaxson Hayes, Peterson and Keyonte George, and Bailey came off the bench both nights.
The projections lean bench. NBC Sports' fantasy desk said Saturday he's expected to come off the bench and could contend for Sixth Man of the Year in that role. RotoWire's outlook on his player page projects a "25-minute bench role," although a news note on the same page says he's expected to start, so even RotoWire hasn't made up its mind. Action Network, via Yahoo, put a Sixth Man futures bet on him.
Our guess is the bench on opening night. We said in our recap of the opener in Boulder that Bailey playing starter's minutes with the second unit is a weapon, and we still think so.
The fantasy rankings are pricing in a bench role
Here's where the outlets have him. These are their rankings; ours comes further down.
| Who | Ranking | Date |
|---|---|---|
| ESPN, Andre Snellings, roto/category leagues | No. 124 | Oct. 9 |
| ESPN, Andre Snellings, points leagues | No. 133 | Oct. 9 |
| RotoWire, final top 150 for high-score leagues (on NBA.com) | No. 139 | Oct. 16 |
| Hashtag Basketball ADP, as cited by PrizePicks | 129.9 | Oct. 16 |
RotoWire's blurb sums up the worry: "Rounded into form late in his rookie season, but his role on the re-tooled Jazz is far from obvious." On the other side, PrizePicks' Riley Thomas wrote, "With Ace Bailey, we're simply projecting a breakout," and Mike Gallagher of Establish the Run has him as a sleeper because "Ace has looked fantastic to start the preseason, and coach Will Hardy has talked up his conditioning."
We're with the sleeper crowd. At those prices you're paying for a 23-minute bench wing, and the last version of Bailey who played games that counted comes free. After the All-Star break he averaged 18.3 points and 4.9 rebounds in 30.3 minutes over 23 games, and then 20.0 a night over his last 13, all per Basketball-Reference. He did that with 0.8 steals a game. Put the October defense on top of the March scoring and you have a different player from the one going 130th.
The catch is that the March numbers came as a 31-minute starter. As a rookie he averaged 15.3 points in 61 starts and 5.4 in 11 games off the bench. Nine of those 11 bench games were his first nine in the NBA, and the other two came in January, in a stretch when he missed seven of nine games (game log). We don't read much into them. Minutes decide his fantasy season, and Ron Boone said on the Locked On Jazz postcast that if Bailey "plays defense, he'll play 30 this year." He's playing defense.
ESPN's own split helps the argument. Snellings has him nine spots higher in category leagues than in points leagues, and category leagues are where a wing who adds steals and boards earns his keep.
Our call: draft him, and here's where
Take him around pick 110. In a 12-team league that's about a round ahead of ESPN's 124 and more than two rounds ahead of RotoWire's 139. In category leagues we'd go a little earlier than that.
His floor is the preseason line: 23 minutes off the bench, 9.5 points, five boards and close to two steals. That's a streamer you can drop by Thanksgiving. If that's all he is, he cost you a 10th-round pick. We'll pay that for the ceiling: the player from last March with the steals added, a 20-point wing who's on the floor to close games. Our full-season call is 15 points, 5 rebounds, 1.3 steals and 35% from three: lower in November, higher by spring.
What could go wrong
The bench role could stick. If Hardy keeps him at 21 to 23 minutes all year, you get the preseason line and nothing more. The three-point shot is the other worry. He made 34.4% as a rookie, then 3 of 11 this preseason. Eleven attempts don't prove a slump, but if they don't fall, his shot count shrinks again.
The wing room is crowded too. Brice Sensabaugh scored 16 in 17 minutes in Phoenix and wants the same second-unit shots, Svi Mykhailiuk is in the nine, and Peterson and Markkanen aren't giving theirs up. If Bailey's three stays cold, he's the one who loses touches.
We'll know more by Wednesday night. The Jazz open at Memphis at 6 p.m. MT (full schedule), and the last time Bailey saw the Grizzlies, on April 10, he had 23 points and 10 rebounds in 28:46. Watch his minutes. If he's over 26 off the bench, the rankings are about to move, and you'll want him on your roster before they do.
Sources: NBA.com box scores (Oct. 4, Oct. 6, Oct. 12, Oct. 16), the NBA.com player page, Basketball-Reference (splits, game log), the Salt Lake Tribune, the Deseret News (McDonald, Oct. 2), ESPN's category and points rankings, RotoWire's top 150 on NBA.com, the RotoWire player page, NBC Sports, Action Network via Yahoo, PrizePicks, Establish the Run, and the Locked On Jazz postcast.