Our Pelicans recap left one thing to watch in Dallas: who's at center when it's close. Friday answers it. If it's tight late, Mo Bamba should be out there, because the one thing the Mavericks keep failing to do this season is finish a defensive possession with the ball.
The report says he can. The NBA's official injury report at 8 p.m. ET Thursday (6 p.m. MT) lists four Jazz players out: Jaren Jackson Jr. with a right MCL tear, Jusuf Nurkić with a right foot injury, and two-way players Trey Alexander and Harrison Ingram, both listed as "G League - Two-Way" on that report. Bamba isn't on it, so the right ankle sprain that had him questionable for New Orleans is off the list. (ESPN's injury list still has Alexander out with a left knee bruise; we're going with the NBA's report.)
Dallas gives the ball back
Opponents have 119 offensive rebounds in Dallas's eight games, 14.9 a game, by our count of the NBA.com box scores. Houston got 17 and 20 in their two meetings. San Antonio got 22 on Wednesday. Eric Spyropoulos's Jazz.com preview says the Mavericks "have struggled mightily" on the defensive glass, "ranking 29th in opponent offensive rebound percentage."
Some of that is who's missing. Dereck Lively II is out after right foot surgery. Santi Aldama is probable on the same report, coming back from right knee surgery, and hasn't played in any of Dallas's eight games. After Wednesday's loss, Austin Veazey of Mavericks On SI wrote that Dallas is "still missing key pieces like Dereck Lively II and Santi Aldama."
That leaves Daniel Gafford. He's started all eight games and averages 23.1 minutes, and he's never gone past 28:46. He also has 26 fouls, six of them in one night against Miami. Behind him is rookie Morez Johnson Jr., a 6-10 forward with 24 fouls in 127 minutes. Make that frontcourt defend the rim and the glass at the same time and somebody ends up in foul trouble.
Why Bamba finishes it
Jaxson Hayes has started the last four games, and he'll probably start this one. Bamba is the one who should be out there at the end. In five games he has 14 offensive rebounds in 88 minutes. Hayes has 16 in 173 minutes over seven games. Bamba has six fouls all season. Hayes has 24, and six of them came Wednesday.
His one long night came on Oct. 26 against Memphis, with Hayes out: 28:34, 14 points, seven rebounds, four blocks and a plus-11 in a five-point loss. On Wednesday he had five offensive rebounds in 14:45. Will Hardy can find him more than that on Friday.
Then there's Lauri Markkanen, who "gutted through some pain and extensive minutes at the five spot" in New Orleans, per Jazz.com. Playing him at the five spreads the floor, but against a team this bad on its own glass it also sits our best offensive rebounder per minute.
Jazz.com also has the style of this game right. We take just under 39 percent of our shots from the mid-range, the most in the league, and Dallas is second. We rank 30th and they rank 29th in shots inside four feet. That's a lot of jumpers in one building, and with us at 31.5 percent from three, 27th in the league per Jazz.com, a lot of misses for somebody to go get.
Our pick
Tip is 6 p.m. MT at American Airlines Center in Dallas, on KJZZ and KSL 97.5 FM (schedule). It's our first NBA Cup game, in West Group A. Dallas already has one group win, 116-111 over Houston on Oct. 30. We're 1-7, 15th in the West, six straight losses, and this is the last game of a four-game road trip. The Mavericks are 4-4 and 11th after two straight losses, the last one 112-111 in San Antonio on Wednesday. DraftKings has Dallas by 7.5, per ESPN, as of Thursday evening.
Max Christie, probable with right hip soreness, started Dallas's first seven games and isn't in Wednesday's box score. Caleb Martin is listed as available with a right thumb splint.
No starters are announced. Projected, going off Wednesday's NBA.com box scores: Keyonte George, Darryn Peterson, Ace Bailey, Markkanen and Hayes for us. For Dallas: Kyrie Irving, Zaccharie Risacher, Cooper Flagg, P.J. Washington and Gafford.
Mavericks 114, Jazz 108. Flagg averages 24.3 points and Irving 22.7, and George is right behind both at 22.0. The six points come from the ball. We turn it over 16.9 times a game to Dallas's 14.9, and two extra giveaways a night eat most of what Bamba can win back on the glass.
The number we'll check in the recap is our offensive rebounds on the NBA.com team line: we average 13.0, and if Bamba is on the floor late and we still finish under 16, the take was wrong.
Take note.
Sources: NBA.com box scores for all eight Jazz games and all eight Mavericks games this season (offensive rebounds, turnovers and three-point shooting from the team lines; Bamba's, Hayes's, Gafford's and Johnson's minutes, rebounds and fouls; George's, Flagg's and Irving's points per game; the Oct. 26 Grizzlies game, the Nov. 4 Pelicans game and Dallas's Nov. 4 Spurs game for starters, all totals our count); NBA.com's Mavericks roster for Johnson's height and rookie status; NBA.com standings for both records and conference places; the NBA official injury report, 8 p.m. ET Nov. 5, for every Jazz and Mavericks status, including Alexander's and Ingram's G League listing; ESPN's injury list (read Nov. 5) for Alexander's knee entry; Eric Spyropoulos on Jazz.com (Mavericks preview for Dallas's defensive rebounding rank, our three-point rank, both teams' shot profiles and Markkanen at the five; Pelicans preview for Bamba's questionable tag); Austin Veazey, Mavericks On SI, on Lively and Aldama; the line from DraftKings via ESPN.