Tonight answers whether Jaren Jackson Jr. can hold the paint against Zach Edey in the building he called home until February. We think he can, as long as he stays on the floor.
That's the whole game for us, because the Jazz open the season short up front. As of 3:49 p.m. MT, ESPN lists Jusuf Nurkić (foot), Tony Bradley (quad) and Trey Alexander (knee) as out. Nurkić has been out since early October and isn't due back for weeks. That leaves Jaxson Hayes, Kyle Filipowski and Mo Bamba as the true centers, with Jackson sliding to the 5 whenever Will Hardy goes small.
Edey is the reason that matters. He played only 11 games last season. In those games he averaged 13.6 points, 11.1 rebounds and 1.9 blocks, per UtahJazz.com. Memphis was 27.8 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor. Eric Spyropoulos of UtahJazz.com called him "a transformative force in his limited action last year." The Jazz finished last in the NBA in blocks last season, at 3.8 a game, per ESPN.
Jackson knows the room
The Jazz traded for Jackson last February. He played three games for Utah last season and is back from knee surgery. UtahJazz.com bills tonight as his on-court return in Memphis. The worry is fouls. He had five before halftime against the Spurs in the preseason (our recap), and he can't protect the rim from the bench. If he's sitting with two in the first quarter, Edey gets Hayes and Bamba one on one.
Memphis has its own thin spot. Isaiah Stewart, the big they got from Detroit this summer, was listed as doubtful (left ankle sprain) on the Jazz's Tuesday injury report and day-to-day on ESPN's. The Grizzlies also traded Ja Morant to Portland. This is a retooled team, same as ours.
Then there's our rookie. Darryn Peterson, No. 22, makes his NBA debut against fellow top pick Cameron Boozer. Peterson spent the preseason figuring out when to shoot and when to move it, and Hardy liked what he saw after the finale in Phoenix: "He's processing the game quickly for a rookie." We'd like to see him attack early instead of waiting for the third quarter to find his rhythm, like he did against San Antonio.
The details: 6:00 p.m. MT at FedExForum, on KJZZ and KSL 97.5 FM. Both teams went 3-1 in the preseason. The Jazz went 22-60 last season, and the teams split four meetings, with Utah winning the last one 147-101 in April. Memphis is a 1.5-point favorite at DraftKings, so the market sees it as close to a coin flip.
Our pick
Jazz 117, Grizzlies 112. Lauri Markkanen and Keyonte George give Utah more proven scoring than a Memphis team that just traded its star, and Jackson plays like a guy with something to prove in front of his old crowd. The number we'll check in the recap: Jackson's fouls at halftime. Two or fewer and we like our chances.
What would make us wrong: Edey dominating the glass. If he stays out of foul trouble himself and Memphis wins the offensive rebounding battle by five or more, our short-handed frontcourt loses this one in the paint.
Take note.
Sources: UtahJazz.com / NBA.com: opener preview and injury report, UtahJazz.com / NBA.com: preseason takeaways, and ESPN and NBA.com for injuries, records, the line, last season's team stats and the last five meetings. Team stats are from last season.