Tonight answers whether the Jazz bigs can keep Yves Missi off the offensive glass. Do that and we have a real shot at the home opener. Don't, and Friday at the Delta Center looks a lot like Wednesday in Memphis.
Our opener recap put that loss on volume. Memphis took 93 shots to our 75, won the boards 55-38 and the offensive boards 15-5, and we turned it over 18 times. Will Hardy said it best after the game, per UtahJazz.com: "The possession game is huge in our league. They got 17 more shots than we did, you could almost end the discussion there." The team coming to the Delta Center tonight out-rebounded Indiana 49-43 in its own opener.
Seven offensive boards for Missi, five for our whole team
New Orleans lost 123-120 at home to Indiana on Wednesday, and Missi is the reason we're worried. He played 30 minutes and put up 13 points, 14 rebounds, 5 assists and 3 blocks on 5-of-6 shooting. Seven of those rebounds were offensive. The Jazz had five offensive rebounds as a team in Memphis.
Derik Queen added 10 points and 10 rebounds off the bench in 18 minutes, and New Orleans finished with 14 offensive boards and 49 total. After one game, ESPN has the Pelicans 10th in the league in offensive rebounds and the Jazz 29th. One game is thin. It's also the only game either team has played, and it says the same thing our recap did.
The Jazz answer with a short frontcourt. As of ESPN's injury list at 9:31 a.m. MT, Jusuf Nurkić is out (right foot) and Tony Bradley is day-to-day (quad). The Jazz's Thursday report had him questionable with a left quad strain. Trey Alexander is out (knee), and the Jazz's Thursday report also lists Harrison Ingram out (G League, two-way). That leaves Jaxson Hayes and Jaren Jackson Jr. up front, with Kyle Filipowski and Mo Bamba behind them.
In Memphis, Hayes, Jackson and Filipowski played 63 minutes between them and grabbed 10 rebounds, one of them offensive. Missi got 14 in 30 minutes against Indiana.
Hayes blocked six shots on Wednesday, and we're keeping that. A block doesn't count for much if the Pelicans get the miss back and score. His whole night should be finding Missi when the shot goes up and putting a body on him. Lauri Markkanen led us with 9 rebounds in Memphis, none of them offensive, and we need him crashing too.
Fouls turn a short frontcourt into a shorter one
New Orleans went 34 of 37 at the line against Indiana. Zion Williamson made all six of his free throws and Queen made all six of his. Jackson fouled out in Memphis with six fouls, and Hayes had four.
Every whistle on one of our bigs puts a Pelican at the line, where they don't miss, and pulls another body out of a rotation that's already down Nurkić. If Jackson picks up two early, Missi gets Filipowski or Bamba, and that's the matchup New Orleans wants all night.
The turnovers, and the rookie
The 18 turnovers haven't gone anywhere. The Pelicans had 11 steals against Indiana, 6th in the league after one game per ESPN, and Williamson had three of them. A turnover gives up the possession before anyone even has to box out.
The easiest fix is our rookie. Darryn Peterson took seven shots in 31 minutes in his debut. Pelicans.com expects Jeremiah Fears and Dejounte Murray to match up with Peterson and Keyonte George, and Fears committed all three of his fouls against Indiana in the first quarter, then shot 2 of 10. Send Peterson at him early. A rookie going downhill gets us to the line, and a possession that ends at the line can't end in a Pelicans steal.
Tip is 7:30 p.m. MT at the Delta Center, on KJZZ and KSL 97.5 FM (schedule), and both teams are 0-1. No starters are announced yet, so these are probable, going off Wednesday: George, Peterson, Markkanen, Jackson and Hayes for us; Fears, Murray, Trey Murphy III, Williamson and Missi for them. The Pelicans reported no injuries in their 9:12 a.m. MT gameday update.
New Orleans plays at Denver on Saturday, the second night of a back-to-back. The Pelicans beat us in all three meetings last season, the last one 156-137 in April, and DraftKings still makes them 1.5-point favorites in our building. Fine by us.
Our pick
Jazz 116, Pelicans 111. It's our first night at home, and New Orleans has Denver on Saturday. George was our best player in Memphis (22 points on 7-of-12) and should get his again. We're betting a team that got beaten this badly on the glass cleans up some of it in its own building. We sat through 22-60 last season, so we can handle believing in a rebounding fix for one night.
The number we'll check in the recap: Pelicans offensive rebounds. Ten or fewer and we like our chances.
What would make us wrong: Missi getting near seven offensive boards again, or the turnovers creeping back toward 18. Either one and the possession game beats us twice in three days.
Take note.
Sources: NBA.com box score and ESPN box score for Jazz-Grizzlies; ESPN box score and play-by-play for Pacers-Pelicans, including when Fears's fouls came; ESPN team stats for the one-game ranks; ESPN injuries, read at 9:31 a.m. MT; UtahJazz.com opener takeaways for Hardy's quote; UtahJazz.com preview for the Jazz injury report and last season's series; Pelicans.com gameday update for the Pelicans' injuries, lineups, matchups and back-to-back; NBA.com game page for the last meeting; the line from DraftKings via ESPN.